On June 29, 2019, peace negotiations to end the war in Afghanistan began in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The main actors in this war are government forces and the Taliban, an insurgent group. This time, however, the Taliban's negotiating partner is not the Afghan government but the U.S. government. The Taliban, which seemed to have disappeared for a time after the U.S.-led coalition forces invaded Afghanistan in 2001, was not the case. This article will focus on the resurgence of the Taliban and look at the situation in Afghanistan.

People of the "Taliban" (Photo: Aslan Media/Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

What is the Taliban anyway? 

After the Soviet invasion (*1), which lasted from 1979 to 1989, ended and the troops withdrew, armed clashes over control of Afghanistan broke out frequently. It was during this period that the Taliban was organized on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 1994. They were an armed group that appealed for the restoration of a land and people exhausted by armed conflict through the application of strict Sharia law (*2). The word "Taliban" means "seminary students" in Arabic, which derives from the fact that the group was composed of students of Islamic seminaries. The Taliban then successively took down mainly the armed forces of the country's ethnic minorities, eventually conquering the capital city of Kabul and declaring the establishment of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" in 1996. The background to this growing momentum was the Pakistani military'ssupportIt is believed that there was a Since then, it has steadily expanded its sphere of influence, and in 1997 took under its protection Osama Bin Laden, the first leader of the international terrorist organization Al Qaeda (*3), and others. However, when the U.S. refused to unconditionally extradite (*4) Bin Laden, who was considered central to the execution of the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the U.S., the U.S. and its allies launched an attack on Afghanistan in October of the same year. After a fierce struggle by coalition forces, the "Taliban" regime collapsed in December of the same year, abandoning its last stronghold of Kandahar.

Indeed, the Taliban regime collapsed for a time. However, instead of stabilizing under the new government, the Taliban resurrected and gradually expanded its power, and today, the Taliban is in control of districts across the country.12%to seize or bring into their sphere of influence, and furthermore, 34% is being contested by the government. The Taliban's presence inbest in the worldIt is enough to make the United States, a military power that boasts of a 17-year What are the factors behind the Taliban's revival and expansion, and what are the factors behind these successes? I would like to look at both the hardware and software aspects.

Military and regime elements

First, I would like to focus on military expansion. After the U.S. intervention, with U.S. soldiers stationed on the mainland, the Taliban, having nowhere else to go, have been able to find safeevacuation centerHe had taken refuge in Pakistan as a In 2002, however, Taliban forces resumed armed activities and gradually expanded their influence from eastern to southern Afghanistan. The Taliban were able to expand their area of operations for the following three reasons. First, the vast amount of financial assistance allowed the government forces to prioritize their own interests over their original tasks.state of decompositionand that the country was relatively easy to invade from the outside. Second, the 2014NATO troop withdrawalThe Taliban's relative strength has been increased by the decrease in the number of foreign troops in Afghanistan due to the And finally, with the Haqquani Network, an insurgent group that is considered the most powerful faction independent of the Taliban.alliance (esp. originally of the Six Kingdoms against the Qin dynasty)The Taliban's first step was to strengthen its military presence in the country. The group, which has ample funds from its ties to Arabs who deal in oil and is also a very capable military group, has become a powerful collaborator for the Taliban, which has placed great importance on expanding its domestic support base.

Taliban militiamen standing in a cemetery (Photo: Gerard Van der Leun / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

As essential as military power is to maintaining a sustainable operation would be the funding of the operation. The Taliban's annual revenues areUS$1.5 billionThese funds are also raised from foreign financing, mineral sales, and tax collection. Howeverlargest source of fundsis the production and smuggling of opium and heroin (*5) made from the poppy. In fact, Afghanistan is the world's entire80%The country produces as much as US$3 billion in opium and heroin, which is estimated to generate US$3 billion in annual revenue. The poppy is a cheap and easy crop to grow and sells for a high price, making it an ideal industry for the devastated combat zones. Furthermore, Afghanistan's soil was particularly suitable for its cultivation, and it is now such an important industry that it accounts for the majority of crops produced in the country. For years, the Taliban has been taking profits from poppy farmers in the areas they control.Approx. 20Recently, however, there has been a movement to establish their own laboratories and factories.be seen. This is because processing into morphine and heroin is more profitable than tax collection.

It is important to note that for the Taliban, encouraging poppy cultivation was not only a way to secure financial resources, but also an act of expanding their support base. Unlike the Afghan government and the U.S. military, which were working to eradicate poppy cultivation, the Taliban were favorably received by the local population. The Taliban were seen by local farmers as a force that protected their livelihoods.

American soldiers standing in a poppy field (Photo: Cpl. John M. McCall, U.S. Marine Corps / Wikimedia Commons)

The Taliban also enjoys the support of the population in the judicial system. Public trials by the state and the provinces are rife with corruption, opaque, and time-consuming. The fact that the system is directly based on the Western system may be one of the causes of discord with the local community. On the other hand, trials by the Taliban can be brutal and punitive based on subjective interpretations of the Koran, but more than that, "thePrompt and fairSome residents trust him as a "good guy.not a littleThe There are endless examples of cases where the Taliban were able to resolve issues without bribes or fees within a few days, while the government often paid lawyers more than US$1,000 in fees but was not offered a solution. Coupled with the fact that a large part of the country is under Taliban rule, many citizens are subject to the Taliban court system.

Improvement of bad impression

The Taliban government that once ruled Afghanistan was infamous for its oppression of women, which was too severe. How did this reputation change after the fall of the Taliban regime? During the Taliban rule, girls' education and women's labor were banned in Afghanistan. However, after the Taliban regime collapsed in 2001, restrictions were gradually eased throughout Afghanistan and women began to enter society, and the Taliban's attitude toward women is said to have become relatively moderate. Currently.millions of peopleof girls study in schools and some women work outdoors. In recent years, within a strict interpretation of Sharia law, it has been suggested that women's rights are guaranteedproposalThe Taliban are also making efforts to gain popular support for their activities. In a sense, these moves can be seen as a strategy by the Taliban to gain popular support.

A girl looks up at an Allied aircraft in Kandahar province (Photo: DVIDSHUB / Flickr [CC BY 2.0 ])

Moreover, beyond expanding its domestic base of support, it has also been active in diplomatic activities outside of the country. This movement has been a major factor in the closed andInternationally IsolatedThis is completely different from the diplomacy that was in place when the Taliban seized power. The Taliban established a diplomatic political office in Qatar to counter President Ashraf Ghani's anti-terrorism measures and to promote their presence in Russia, China, Iran, and other countries in Central Asia and the Middle East, thereby establishing diplomatic relations.reinforceThe U.S. is a major player in the world economy. In this light, the negotiations with the U.S. described at the beginning of this paper can be seen as part of diplomatic activities. On the other hand, however, the central government, which is the most important domestic actor, is not a puppet of the U.S.regard (as equivalent)The US is refusing to negotiate directly with them because of the fact that they are not willing to negotiate directly with the US. Therefore, they are probably pursuing peace negotiations with the U.S., even though it may seem like a roundabout way of doing so.

Will a peace agreement be reached?

As we have seen above, the Taliban has been in power for some time, but its power has been rapidly reduced and then resurrected. Today, the Taliban is an important actor in Afghanistan's political situation, standing side by side with the central government. With peace negotiations with the U.S. expected to be discussed in the near future, it will be interesting to see how the Taliban will be involved in Afghanistan's political affairs. The Taliban has said that it will take counterterrorism measures and ceasefire measures on the condition that U.S. troops in Afghanistan withdraw, but talks have been difficult. Interest in the Taliban's position on Afghanistan's political situation is growing.

A father and son sit and stare at us (Photo: ArmyAmber /) Pixabay)

1 Invasion of Afghanistan: An invasion by Soviet forces that began at the end of 1979 to take advantage of the conflict within Afghanistan. The Soviet Union aimed to prevent Afghanistan from being incorporated into the capitalist camp led by the United States. The troops withdrew between 1988 and 1989 after perestroika, a movement to reform the political system, was launched in the Soviet Union.

2 Sharia law: A body of law based on the contents of the Quran, the sacred book of Islam, with interpretations by scholars. It serves as a norm for all areas of daily life, including religious and ritual methods, state administration, family, and business transactions.

3 Al-Qaeda: An organization that supports international terrorism. Al-Qaeda is believed to have played a central role in the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and the 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States. The group moved to Sudan for a time, but returned to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan in 1996. The Taliban differs significantly from al-Qaeda, an international network organization, in that the Taliban is an indigenous organization.

4 The Taliban expressed readiness to extradite Bin Laden if proof of his involvement in the case was presented, but the U.S. refused and demanded unconditional extradition.

5 Relationship between poppy, opium, heroin, and morphine: Generally, the dried juice from the poppy seed is considered opium, and when opium is extracted and refined, it becomes morphine and heroin, which are more pure. Morphine and heroin are more expensive than opium.

CORRECTION: An error has been corrected regarding the percentage of areas seized or placed in the sphere of influence by the Taliban. (12/17/2019)

Writer: Yuka Ikeda

Graphic: Saki Takeuchi

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