The number of people living below the World Bank's extreme poverty line (less than $1.9 per day) is expected to increase for the first time in 20 years as a result of the spread of the new coronavirus. That number is up to150 million peopleThis accounts for 9.1~9.41 TP3T of the world's population. Under these circumstances, various countries are providing cash transfers as one of the measures. Furthermore, this is a situation of severe poverty that is likely to continue even after the end of the new coronavirus. Therefore, there is a system that provides cash transfers from normal times as an effective breakthrough measure against poverty. This is the "Universal Basic Income. This article introduces expectations and concerns about universal basic income, as well as examples of actual implementation.

What is Universal Basic Income?

Universal basic income is a system that guarantees citizens the minimum income necessary to survive.basic incomeIt is sometimes referred to as the "basic dividend" or "basic dividend. Universal" means "universal" and refers to the fact that it is not directed to a specific group of people, but to all people. Basic" means "basic," indicating that it is the minimum amount of money needed for a minimum standard of living. And income means "income. In other words, universal basic income represents "an income for everyone necessary to lead a minimum life. Policies similar to a universal basic income have already been implemented in several countries in various forms. However, all of them are experimental and partial, and do not necessarily meet the requirements of a universal basic income. This is because,Stanford Basic Income LabAccording to the Universal Basic Income is the following5indicates possessive (often found in place names)The term basically refers to those that meet the following criteria. (1) it is paid to all people and does not target any particular group of people; (2) it is unconditional; (3) it is paid to individuals rather than to households; (4) it is paid on a regular basis; and (5) it is paid in cash and the recipients are free to use the cash. However, most of the universal basic income programs that have been or are currently being implemented have taken a variety of forms, including being based on household surveys, conditional, or experimental in some areas.

Here, it goes without saying that the implementation of a universal basic income would require a huge amount of money, which would be funded mainly by3 typesThe first is the national debt. The first is the national debt, the second is tax revenues, and the third is funding from outside the government. The third is funding from outside the government, such as a fund established from a portion of oil revenues. Another concept similar to universal basic income is the "negative income taxThere is such a thing as a "new" concept. This concept is not new,1960Around the year 2000, the Nobel Prize winner in economicsMr. Milton FriedmanIt is an idea endorsed by the "Mere Old Man" and is a system in which a certain amount of cash is given to those who earn less than a certain amount, depending on their income. However, this is a different concept from the universal basic income, which provides benefits to all people. As can be seen here, universal basic income and similar concepts have been proposed for some time. However, there is controversy surrounding universal basic income, and the expectations and concerns surrounding universal basic income are discussed in detail below.

Stanford Basic Income Lab dataBased on (as of 2021)

Expectations and Concerns Surrounding Universal Basic Income

In this section, we will look at the arguments in favor of a universal basic income. First, a basic income would allow people to earn a fixed income, which would lead to a reduction in poverty.It's been said.The guarantee of a certain income can also help to prevent employers from continuing to hire employees under poor working conditions. Guaranteeing a certain level of income also encourages employees to make the decision to leave a job with poor conditions and prevents employers from continuing to hire employees under poor working conditions. As a result, it is expected to reduce poverty by improving employment conditions.opinionThere are also

Poverty reduction also has a significant impact on other aspects of society. By earning a fixed income, people are able to pay medical fees and receive hospital care at an early stage of disease and other conditions, thus receiving treatment earlier before they become more serious. In addition, earning a fixed income improves nutritional status and health status. As a result, the health and sanitation situation isimprovementThe "M" is the word that is used to describe the "M" in the word "M".EducationWith regard to the "income security", it is expected to cover expenses for education such as school fees, textbooks, uniforms, etc., and also improve the level of education. It is also believed that a stable income will relieve financial pressure and stabilize the family, thus reducing the occurrence of domestic violence and other problems, which is thought to increase the safety of the family.

In addition to reducing poverty, universal basic income is expected to have positive effects on various aspects of people's lives and society. By guaranteeing a livelihood through a fixed income, people will be able to start their own businesses without fear of risk.increaseIn addition, the program will also increase the likelihood that new businesses will emerge that will benefit society and the economy. In addition, adults will also be able to receive education and job training to prepare for their own future.investmentIt is also expected to have the effect of encouraging With a fixed income, people will engage in artistic and volunteer activities for longer hours than before, and society will become morebecome richIt is also believed that

Furthermore, the expectation of universal basic income is that it will reduce the cost of the social security system and improve the efficiency of the system.thinkingThere are also This is because the existing social security system is considered to have many deficiencies and duplications because the system is administered separately for each support purpose, which is costly and does not efficiently reach those in need of assistance.For example.The social security system is a "one-size-fits-all" system, where some families in similar situations benefit from multiple social security programs, while others are left out of the system and do not benefit from it. Therefore, replacing the social security system with a single, simple system in which individuals can decide what to do with their money will make it morereasonableto be made. In addition, existing social security systems are based on household surveys to determine whether or not benefits are provided, the amount of benefits provided, and the amount of deductions, and these surveys and administrations are very costly. Basic income does not require such research and administration costs because it provides a certain amount of benefits uniformly to all people. Therefore, it is said that universal basic income can contribute to the rationalization and cost reduction of the existing social security system.

Some studies also report that a universal basic income would increase consumption and enrich the economy.Roosevelt Institute, U.S.A.According to the Monthly Report, all adults in the U.S. are required to have a monthly500If the U.S. dollar benefit is provided, consumption will increase and GDP will reach its maximum eight years after its introduction.6.8%It is estimated that the number will increase. Finally, some argue that mechanization and AI will be able to supplement the incomes of those who lose their jobs in the future. In the U.S., it is estimated that by 2032, mechanization will reduce the number of workers'one thirdThe demand for labor is likely to decrease due to mechanization and the introduction of AI. It is very likely that the demand for labor will decrease due to mechanization and the introduction of AI in the future, and the universal basic income will help people cope with the resulting decrease in employment opportunities and income.

OECD Forum where basic income was discussed (Photo: OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development /Flickr)[.CC BY-NC 2.0]

Next, we will also look at some of the criticisms of universal basic income. To begin, we will argue that a universal basic income would remove incentives for people to work and make many people dependent on the government.criticismis frequently made. In other words, when people are guaranteed a certain income, they feel less need to work and are less willing to work. In fact, voluntary resignation rises at an accelerating rate as the amount of the universal basic income increasespredictionThere is also the case that if the source of revenue for universal basic income is tax revenues If the universal basic income is financed by tax revenues, a vicious cycle can be envisioned in which people are discouraged from working and resign, which will further increase the tax burden on workers and cause more people to resign.

Contrary to the results of the aforementioned study by the Roosevelt Institute in the U.S., there are also reported projections that the introduction of a universal basic income will reduce GDP. According to Kent Smetters et al. of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, if a basic income of US$500 per month is provided to all adults in the US, debt will increase by 63.51 TP3T and GDP will decrease by 6.11 TP3T by 8 years after its introduction.predictionIt is estimated that Also, by 13 years after its introduction, debt would increase by 81.1% and GDP would decrease by 9.31 TP3T. In other words, there is a wide divergence of opinion regarding the impact of universal basic income on GDP.

Underlying the projection of declining GDP is the cost of implementation. The costs of implementing a universal basic income are enormous.pointing outThis is because they are frequently made by the A forecasting model conducted at the University of Bath in the U.K. estimated that even the cheapest estimate would be about $3,000 per year in the U.K.US$190 billionThe equivalent would be required. In low-income countries, the amount of income to guarantee livelihood is relatively small, but financial resources are limited, and therefore, as in high-income countries, the cost hurdles are high with respect to operation. For example, in Côte d'Ivoire, the income to live without encumbrance is only aboutUS$7,318It is estimated to be the equivalent of US$1.9 per day. This is well above the extreme poverty line (US$1.9 per day) set by the World Bank. In addition, the higher cost means that if the source of revenue is tax revenue, taxation on the public, one of the sources of financing, will also be higher. Thus, the burden on the public of paying taxes could be greater.pointing outThe company has been

On the other hand, there are areas where efforts can be made to facilitate the funding of a universal basic incomesupportive opinionThere are also For example, by cracking down on companies and individuals that divert vast amounts of money out of the country through tax avoidance and evasion, tax revenue losses can be avoided and tax revenues can be secured. Global tax losses due to corporate tax avoidance are estimated atUS$330 billionThe number of tax havens is said to be as high as 1,000. This is a method of transferring profits from countries where economic activity is actually conducted and profits are earned to tax havens where there is virtually no economic activity, and then evading the corporate tax that should be levied by making it look as if profits were earned there.structureThis is made possible by such measures as the following. If taxes are collected correctly and properly from businesses, large tax losses could be recouped to fund a universal basic income.

There are also those who, noting the extreme disparities in the world, propose a solution to the problem of the cost of a universal basic income. One is that it could be financed by further taxation of the wealthy. According to Credit Suisse, the top wealthiest people in the world10% (of the total)owns 85% of the world's wealth. Increasing taxation on the wealthy, who hold nearly 90% of the world's wealth, and using it to finance a universal basic income, would enable one function of taxation: redistribution of wealth. Furthermore, in order to achieve a basic income whose primary goal is to reduce poverty, it is also considered effective to stop government subsidies to companies that engage in unsustainable economic activities. For example, global fossil fuel subsidies, as of 2015, amounted to an annualUS$4.7 trillionThis amounted to as much as Since this is an obstacle to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is better to stop the subsidies and use the funds for a universal basic incomeIt's apt.There is also the idea that

The above is a brief overview of universal basic income and the opinions and criticisms generally voiced in support of the idea. In the following sections, we will discuss in more detail, in chronological order, specific cases of universal basic income that are similar to the universal basic income that has been implemented.

Example: Canada (Manitoba)

First, the "The City of Dauphin and the City of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, 1975~1978" was conducted.Mincome ExperimentsThe following describes the "Mere Old Man". Any person or family who falls into the lowest income bracket was eligible to participate, and benefits were provided to approximately 1,500 families in Winnipeg and 600 families in Dauphin. The amount of benefits provided depended on the number and age of family members and the source of their income.varyis approximately $3,000 per month.250-390 U.S. dollarsThe equivalent amount was paid.

Dauphine (Photo: AI/ Flickr)[.CC BY-NC 2.0]

The experiment revealed a number of results. First, through this experiment, basic income has been shown to improve people's health status byImprovement.The study found that Those who received basic income benefits had higher hospitalization rates than those who did not8.5%decreased, as did the frequency of physician visits. High school completion rates also increased. For example, prior to the experiment, high school completion rates were low among Dauphin students, with many dropping out at age 16 to work on farms or in factories. However,1976to all Dauphin students were able to continue on to their final year of schooling, indicating an improvement in educational attainment. In addition, as noted earlier, one concern about basic income is that it discourages people from working, but the results of this experiment refute that criticism. throughout the four-year experiment, the working conditions of the heads of household wereNo change.The authors conclude that the basic income did not reduce the incentive to work. On the other hand, the employment rate of members of the household who are not the primary breadwinnersdecreaseThe company has done so. Specifically,Women with children and minorsThis is because women with children no longer need to work alongside childcare as they used to, thanks to their guaranteed income. This is because women with children, thanks to their guaranteed income, no longer need to work alongside childcare as before, and they are more likely to take longer parental leave. In addition, minors no longer need to support the family's finances and are able to attend school.

Example: Brazil

From 2003-2010, the Bolsa Familia program was implemented throughout Brazil, with approximately 13.6 million households receiving basic income.Approx. 46.6 millionApproximately 221 TP3T of the total Brazilian population received the benefit. Under this program, basic income was provided to poor families based on a household survey. In addition to being a poor family, recipients were also required to send their children to school and receive immunizations, among other things, in order to receive the benefit.termsThe average monthly payment per household was aboutUS$34It was substantial.

After the introduction of this policy, the country's poverty rate was26.1% (%)to 2009.14.1% (%)and the extreme poverty rate fell from 10.0% to 4.8%. In addition, the Gini coefficient, a value indicating the magnitude of inequality, decreased from 2003's0.58to 2009.0.54 The result was smaller to Since this program did not create a control group, we do not know the causal relationship between the policy and the results of poverty reduction and inequality reduction, but it is conceivable that the results of this program contributed to some extent.

Bolsa Familia Program (Photo: Senado Federal/ Flickr)[.CC BY 2.0]

In addition, the city of Marica, Brazil, is experimenting with a new basic income starting in 2019. About.52,000 peopleis about a month.US$25-35equivalent, and in April 2020, the benefit amount will more than double to approx.US$58increased considerably. of benefits.termsare living in the city of Marica for at least three years and belonging to a family with an income less than three times the minimum monthly income in Brazil (equivalent to about US$615). A unique feature of this experiment is that the basic income is available only in the city of Marica in the local currency, "mbuka (group of African cichlids from Lake Malawi)It is to be provided by the "basic income. This allows for a more accurate measurement of what the basic income is being used for and the changes in people's behavior after receiving the benefit. The Mumbuka Bank, which issues the "mumbuka," also provides interest-free loans to citizens and local small businesses.

Funding source is from oil revenues.earningsTherefore, the experiment is said to be feasible over a long period of time. This experiment has just begun and results are not yet available. However, the number of recipients is larger than in other experiments, and the results of this experiment, which made it possible to accurately measure the data using local currency, are sure to have a significant impact on the debate on the spread of basic income.

Example: Finland

Next, we present an experiment conducted in Finland.2017Monthly payments to 2,000 randomly selected unemployed people in Finland for two years fromUS$670An experiment was conducted in which an equivalent benefit was provided. The conditions under which the benefits were provided were that at the start of the experiment25-58 years oldand was to be covered by unemployment insurance at a minimum. Recipients could also continue to receive benefits if they found employment within the time period.

Social security institutions in Finland (Photo: Kotivalo/ Wikimedia Commons)[.CC BY-SA 4.0]

So what were the results from this experiment? Basic income recipients felt happier and had less mental strain and stress than those who did notOkay, okay.The number of people who are concerned about their financial situation is not limited to those who are receiving the basic income. In addition, basic income recipients who are concerned about their financial situation are39%The number of respondents who were not in receipt of UBI was This is a small percentage compared to the 491 TP3T of those not receiving UBI who were concerned about their economic situation. In other words, the basic income was found to reduce the percentage of respondents who were worried about their financial situation. In addition, recipients reported a higher level of trust in social institutions such as the government and police than they did before receiving the basic income. In addition, the employment status of basic income recipients wasNo change was observed,Unemployment continued.

Example: Kenya

Since 2017, Kenya has been experimenting with basic income. In two counties, Siaya and Bomet.Approx. 20,000The benefits are paid for the In this experiment, monthlyUS$22.5Four groups have been created and are still being tested: a group that will receive the equivalent of US$22.5 per month for 12 years, a group that will receive the equivalent of US$22.5 per month for 2 years, a group that will receive a lump sum payment of approximately US$500, and a group that will not receive basic income for comparative purposes.

Bomet, Kenya (Photo: Kiprotich Towett/ Wikimedia Commons)[.CC BY-SA 4.0]

As of 2020, the experiment reveals a variety of impacts of the basic income. First, for all groups that received the benefits, the rate of experiencing hunger was4.9-10.8lower. The rate of hospital visits was also2.8 to 4.6%lower, and family morbidity is also3.6~5.7%They found that it was lower. Other findings included that recipients were less likely to be depressed. Basic income recipients also started new businesses and generated more business profits than non-recipients.confirmingThe results of the study are presented in Table 1. From the above, it can be considered that basic income can help reduce poverty and hunger and improve physical and mental health conditions.

summary

Since all of the examples to date have been experimental and small-scale, it is unknown what the impact will be when the program is implemented on a nationwide basis. In addition, the basic income amounts set in many cases have been relatively small, and it is unknown what the results will be when the basic income is raised to a level at which people can make a living. In addition, there is no doubt that the cost of the program will be enormous, and how to finance it will be a major challenge. On the other hand, despite these challenges and concerns, the experimental cases have revealed many positive results, and the problems that had been of particular concern, such as the loss of motivation to work, have not been so apparent. In addition, with many people currently living in poverty and the number expected to increase in the future due to the spread of the new coronavirus and climate change, this policy is considered to have great potential as a means of resolving poverty. Therefore, further discussion on the spread of universal basic income is expected.