Serdar Berdymukhamedov, who was just sworn in as President of Turkmenistan in March 2022, in June of that year, as tensions in Ukraine continued to escalate due to Russia's invasion of the country.visitThe first time the two countries met, the first time the two countries met. Its purpose is reportedly to confirm and strengthen bilateral relations. One of the things that ties Russia and Turkmenistan together is natural gas. Turkmenistan is a country extremely rich in natural resources and boasts some of the largest natural gas reserves in the world. The country has long used its natural gas as a strength in international trade with Russia, China, and other countries. However, despite such abundant resources, about half of the population suffers from poverty. Despite its abundant resources, many of its citizens are forced to live in poverty. Why are these contradictions occurring?

A view of the capital city of Ashkhabad (Photo: Peretz Partensky / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0]

History and Natural Resources of Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan is located in southwestern Central Asia and has the second largest area in Central Asia after Kazakhstan. However, the Karakum Desert is the landApprox. 80% or moreand many mountainous areas such as the Kopetdag Mountains. The population is concentrated along the Caspian Sea bordering the western part of the country and near the border with Iran.characteristicIt is.

Part of the Soviet Union since 1924, Turkmenistan gained independence in October 1991. Since then, the country has been under a dictatorship.Economist Intelligence UnitOut of 167 countries in the democracy ranking by161st place(2021). Freedom of speech, press, etc. is severely restricted,Reporters Without BordersThe annual ranking of press freedom published by the177th(2022). Other issues include restrictions on freedom of religion and association, torture and violence in police and prisons, human trafficking, and sex discrimination,human rights violation issueThe list goes on and on.

Next, a brief introduction to Turkmenistan's post-independence politics is in order. Only three presidents have been born in Turkmenistan, including the current president, who served as the country's first president for about 15 years after independence in 1991.Mr. Saparmurat Niyazovconducted an autocratic government based on extreme personal worship. In the capital city of Asigabat, he built his own hugegolden imageHe built cities, airports, and other facilities, and even named "months" and "days of the week" after his own family.policyThe company has launched a number of

Niyazov's sudden death in office at the end of 2006 brought the second Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov government into power, but it did not change the dictatorship in Turkmenistan. Although he held up his de-Niyazov, he too had his own golden statue of(act of) building (temple, monument, etc.)His personal worship continued. He also extended the presidential term of office from five to seven years so that he himself could serve as president for a long time, and eliminated restrictions on the number of times he could be elected and his age, and other self-centeredconstitutional amendmentThe first time he did so was in Then, in March 2022, he handed over the presidency to his son Serdar Berdimuhamedov. This issuccession to powerThe topic was discussed as

The current president, Serdar Berdymukhamedov, immediately after taking office, has been working with Russia and theSaudi Arabiaand visit theIranAlthough the country has shown a willingness to build external relations, for example, by signing a cooperation document with President Eblaheem Raisi of the United States, it remains to be seen whether the country will maintain its dictatorship or move toward democratization.

Giant golden statue of second president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov (Photo: Allan Mustard / Wikimedia Commons [CC0 1.0]

On the other hand, Turkmenistan has another major characteristic besides being a dictatorship. It has oil and natural gas resources and mineral resources such as solid sodium chloride and sulfate.wealthThe country is rich in natural gas, with reserves of approximately 19.5 trillion cubic meters. In particular, the country is very rich in natural gas, with reserves of approximately 19.5 trillion cubic meters.estimationThe world's largest reserves of oil and natural gas are located in the United States. Its reserves are the second largest in the world after Russia, Iran, and Qatar.4th PlaceEquivalent to

These natural resources are an important economic foundation supporting Turkmenistan. According to the International Trade Center (ITC), Turkmenistan's annual revenues from natural gas and otherApprox. 6.3 billion U.S. dollars(2021), which is estimated to be about 351 TP3T of Turkmenistan's GDP and 801 TP3T of total fiscal revenue.be equivalent to(*1). In addition, the world's total natural gas supplyApprox. 10%is produced in Turkmenistan. China is currently the largest export destination for Turkmenistan's total natural gas exports.78.8%The company accounts for

Thus, the abundance of natural gas and other natural resources is Turkmenistan's greatest strength. However, despite possessing world-class natural gas, many people in Turkmenistan suffer from poverty. According to the World Bank, the percentage of people living below the "ethical poverty line" (US$7.4 per day) (*2), which indicates whether a person is guaranteed a minimum standard of living, including food, clothing, and shelter, is the lowest among the population.47%(*3).

especially2017The price of food in private grocery stores was lower than before the shortage.Up to 6 timesThe number of people who are unable to afford expensive food has ballooned to as many as 1.5 million. As a result, many poor people who cannot afford expensive food have no choice but to buy food at state-run grocery stores, which are subsidized by the government and sell food at lower prices than the private sector, and every morning in search of limited food, thelong linemade. over the last slice of bread.scufflecan occur. Thus, half of the population is forced to live in poverty.

A view of the bazaar in the capital city of Ashkhabad (photo: american_rugbier / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0]

Unclear state management and widespread corruption in the country

As we saw in the previous chapter, Turkmenistan has an abundance of natural gas and its revenues. So why on earth are so many of Turkmenistan's citizens suffering from poverty? One of the main reasons is the opaque management of the state by a certain elite class in Turkmenistan. It has become the norm that most of the revenues from natural gas and other resources go to the elite and are not returned to the people of Turkmenistan.Crude AccountabilityHuman rights groups and other critics, such as the "up to about 801 TP3T of revenues from natural gas sales may have gone to elite officials, including the private accounts of the Berdimuhamedov family.Voice of Doubthave also gone up. Those funds are provided by a network of patrons who support themselves.source of funds (money)or to reinforce the president's personal worship.Projectexpenses, as well as in Europe and the U.S.Real Estate PurchaseThey are used for such purposes as

Natural gas revenues, which should greatly enrich Turkmenistan's economy, are being used to line the pockets of the elite. This is one of the biggest obstacles to the development of Turkmenistan. Surprisingly, the people of Turkmenistan are largely unaware of this situation.Freedom of speech and pressThis is because corruption such as the above can be easily concealed in Turkmenistan, where corruption is not recognized by the NGO organization that works to improve transparency in the oil and gas sector in each country,Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)According to a ranking prepared by NRGI, Turkmenistan's transparency in the sector scored 0 out of 100, and its ranking is naturally the lowest of 45 countries. NRGI's 2017, which also assesses the quality of governance of the mining sector in resource producing countries around the world.Resource Governance Indexranked the company at 11 out of 100 points, or 88th out of 89 countries. In particular, one of the evaluation items, "earnings management," received a score of 0.

Infantry troops wearing the national color green (Photo: President of Ukraine / Wikimedia Commons [CC0 1.0]

That is not the only reason for Turkmenistan's opaque state management. Turkmenistan's official economic reports show annual GDP growth rates of6% or higher(2018). This growth rate is out of 189 countries31st Placeequivalent, but in reality the reliability of its reports is considered quite low. In fact, the World Bank has stated that it "lacks reliable, high-quality data" and that its official report, "World Economic Outlook (IMF)to include financial data provided by the Government of Turkmenistan in therefusalThe company also states that the actual growth rate is less than 11 TP3T. Also, that the actual growth rate is less than 11 TP3T.opinionIn addition to GDP, there are no reliable official announcements of detailed natural gas revenues or unit pricing, and the exact amount is unknown.

New export destinations and debts incurred

Another major factor in Turkmenistan's failure to return natural gas revenues to the people is the debt incurred by former President Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov in developing new export destinations and the huge drop in natural gas prices.

The origin of the incident dates back to the time of the first president Niyazov's administration. In fact, at that time, Turkmenistan's main export destination for natural gas was not China,RussiaThe first time the company was in the United States was in the United States in 1949. However, during the latter years of the Niyazov administration, Russia frequently requested price controls frompressureThe government of Turkmenistan became increasingly frustrated as it began to receive The government of Turkmenistan became increasingly dissatisfied and was forced to develop new export destinations and build pipelines to transport natural gas to these destinations.

It was in China that Mr. Niyazov turned his attention. In April 2006, shortly before his death, Mr. Niyazov signed an agreement with then Chinese President Hu Jintao to build a pipeline between Central Asia and China and to supply 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually for 30 years after the pipeline was opened.contractThe two countries exchanged After Niyazov's death, Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov took over the presidency and continued to focus on building friendly relations with China, finally opening the Central Asia-China pipeline in December 2009, which had been a long-held dream since the Niyazov administration.achievementThe company has been working on a new project to develop a new gas supply system in China. Year after year, demand for natural gas in Chinasudden expansionIn the mid-2010s, China became Turkmenistan's largest exporter of natural gas.buyerThe first time this happened was in 1983, when the company was founded.

At first glance, it seems like a success, but things were not so easy. The cost of finding a large trading partner, China, to finance the construction of the pipeline was a largeliabilitiesThe country has been saddled with a To add insult to injury, from mid-2014 to around 2016, the price of natural gas and oil plummeted in what is said to be the biggest crash in modern history.occurrenceThe country's gas revenues have been significantly higher than in the previous year. This double burden of debt and falling prices has caused Turkmenistan's gas revenues to significantlydecreaseThe country's natural gas industry has been undergoing a period of rapid economic growth and development. In addition, many natural gas-related companies in Turkmenistan are state-owned rather than privately owned, and corruption is widespread.affectand cannot receive investments and loans from international investors. For these reasons, even today the economic situation in Turkmenistan has not improved much and gas revenues have hardly increased.

Second president Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) during their meeting in 2017 (Photo: Пресс-служба Президента Российской Федерациии / Wikimedia Commons [CC0 1.0])

Following these failures of the Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov administration, the wrinkles were turned on the people even more, inflation became more prevalent, and the poverty rate rose further. Also, during the Niyazov administration, gas, electricity, and water were free for up to a certain amount of use due to Turkmenistan's abundance of energy resources, but that system was also discontinued in 2017 with theabolitionThe first time the government was Political Leaders.failurehas led to further poverty among the people.

TAPI Project

It was not until 2009 that a pipeline was built to and from China. Despite this, it is no exaggeration to say that Turkmenistan's current economy is dependent on demand for gas from China, which at the same time means that the country has not been able to diversify its export sources. It is clear that if demand in China were to disappear, the company would lose all sources of income, yet it has yet to find new markets. In fact, at the time of the Niyazov administration, China was not the only country on the list of potential new export destinations. Under pressure from Russia, the government of Turkmenistan at that time had the urgent task of developing and diversifying new export destinations.
　
What was launched there was the TAPI (acronym for Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline construction project. As the name suggests, the pipeline will span 1,814 kilometers from Turkmenistan across the country to India, and if realized3.3 billion cubic meters per yearThe project will be able to supply gas in In fact, this project had been under consideration since 1995, before we had yet established trade relations with China (*4).Asian Development Bank (ADB)and ... andIslamic Development BankThe decision was also made to obtain a loan from the government, and construction was steadily underway, with construction beginning in 2015.

U.S. Energy Information AdministrationCreated based on data from

However, this TAPI project is currently stalled. One of the reasons for this is that Turkmenistan is experiencing difficulties in obtaining financing. Construction FundingApprox. US$10 billionof the pipeline's construction consortium.Investment RatioThe decision is to be made according to the The ratio of capital contribution is 51 TP3T each by Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, and the remaining 851 TP3T are all in Turkmenistan, so the country will be responsible for the majority of the construction funds. Of that 851 TP3T, 341 TP3T will come from the ADB and the Islamic Development Bank.financial institutionswas to be borne by Turkmenistan, but the remaining 511 TP3T, or approximately US$5 billion, was to be obligated to be paid by Turkmenistan.

In the midst of all this, the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in August 2021.holdingIn response to the TAPI project, the ADB has decided to conduct all activities related to the TAPI project.suspension of music, dance, etc. as a sign of mourningIn March of the following year, "The TAPI project will not resume unless the Taliban regime is recognized by the United Nations and the world's economic powers."statementThe ADB announced the postponement of its activities in the midst of the country's debt and inability to obtain loans from international investors. The postponement of ADB's activities was announced while the country was in debt and unable to obtain financing from international investors. To date, there is no prospect of raising funds.

Furthermore, the situation in Afghanistan has also affected the construction itself. As of June 2022, construction has not resumed.

As we have seen, Turkmenistan's economy is heavily dependent on China and is suffering from declining revenues due to the debt incurred in the construction of the pipeline. Despite the need to diversify export destinations to break its dependence on China and increase export volumes to increase revenues, the future of the new possibility of the TAPI pipeline is uncertain and shows no signs of improvement.

Ceremony celebrating the completion of construction of the TAPI pipeline within Turkmenistan (Photo: Allan Mustard / Wikimedia Commons [CC0 1.0]

The Future of Turkmenistan

But there has been progress. Trade with Russia has beenrestartingThe reason for this is that the government of President Niyazov was in the midst of a crisis of economic growth in the region. As mentioned earlier, relations with Russia deteriorated during the latter years of the Niyazov administration over the price of natural gas. As a result, the volume of natural gas exports from Turkmenistan to Russia began to decline significantly around 2010, and by 2016 it had completely dropped to zero. In May 2019, however, exports resumed. This is because Russia, which wants to resell natural gas purchased from Turkmenistan to European countries, and Turkmenistan, which wants to increase its gas revenues, are in agreement with each other.Seen by.The following is a list of the most common problems with the

Currently, Turkmenistan's ties with Russia can be seen to be growing stronger. This is because while the West is imposing sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, current President Serdar Berdymukhamedov is visiting Russia, and the two leaders are working on a declaration on strengthening relations between Turkmenistan and Russia.signatureThe details of the meeting are not known. The details of the meeting are not known,Energy CooperationHe said that the discussion focused on the

Also, in response to the situation in Ukraine, a new pipeline will be laid from Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea to Europe without going through Russia.possibilityalso came up. In fact, the consideration of this pipeline is not a new idea; it has been on the agenda since the 1990s. However, various factors, including opposition from Russia and Iran, which feared increased competition in the gas market, and a dispute among the five countries bordering the Caspian Sea (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Russia) over territorial rights to the Caspian Sea, have combined to keep the project from being actively pursued.It has never been discussed.. However, the recent invasion of Ukraine has rekindled the debate, as European countries that had previously depended on Russian oil and natural gas have begun to look for new sources of imports. If realized, this could lead to the long-desired diversification of export destinations and an increase in export volumes.

In addition, the TAPI project mentioned in the previous chapter is also beginning to see the possibility of resuming construction. Although funding and other issues have yet to be resolved, the Taliban, which came to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, will receive a letter from a special unit in January 2022 to ensure that the TAPI project can be safely carried out.Approx. 30,000The company announced that it would dispatch This could lead to rapid progress in the project.

Current President Serdar Berdimuhamedov (then Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs) (left) and CTBTO Preparatory Committee Secretary General Lassina Zerbo (now retired) (right) (2018) (Photo: The Official CTBTO Photostream / Wikimedia Commons [CC0 1.0]

However, such diversification of export destinations and increased export volumes alone will not lead to fundamental solutions. As we have seen, corruption is rampant in Turkmenistan, and governance remains opaque. No matter how much income is generated by diversifying export destinations, it is unlikely to be passed on to the people of Turkmenistan unless this system is improved.

Is there any chance that this authoritarian regime will improve? Unfortunately, it is seen as unlikely. Some hope that current President Serdar Berdymukhamedov will bring about reform, but are cautious about it.opinionThere are many who policies similar to his father's and will continue to govern based on the worship of the individual.concernThe Senate is the largest in the world. Besides, his father and former president, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, also chairs the Senate.as suchand continue to be involved after the president leaves office.possibilityis a concern. If this were to happen, the likelihood of a similar regime would be even greater.

Moreover, the problems in Turkmenistan are not only related to natural gas. As mentioned earlier, there is also a mountain of problems related to restrictions on freedom of speech and other forms of human rights violations, such as human trafficking and sex discrimination, all of which will not be solved overnight.question (e.g. on a test)It is not. Will the new president take action on these issues, or will the uncertain dictatorship continue? Will the day come when wealth will be distributed equally and the people of Turkmenistan will be able to lead affluent lives? I sincerely hope that Turkmenistan will become a society where abundant resources will bring about a prosperous life, a society where such a norm can be realized.

1 The government of Turkmenistan has been working on the balance of payments of the state.Not officially announced.Therefore, ITC estimates.

2 GNV uses the ethical poverty line (US$7.4 per day) instead of the World Bank's extreme poverty line (US$1.9 per day). For more information, please refer to GNV's article "How do you read the global poverty situation?See "

3 The government of Turkmenistan does not officially announce its population, so this is an estimate. The population is estimated to be 5-6 million, but some local media report that the population is around 3.3 million because about 2 million people have left the country since 2008, so the actual number is not known.unknownThe first is.

4 However, India did not participate when this project was first proposed. India announced its participation in 2008.

Writer: Kyoka Maeda

Graphic: Mayuko Hanafusa

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