In April 2022, in South Sudan, President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riyak Machar, who until recently have been at odds with each other, will unify the military commanders of the two sidesagreementThis was a milestone for peace in the country. This unification, which had been planned under the 2018 peace agreement but had not been realized due to continued conflict since the agreement was signed, will finally be achieved in 2022. In addition, in the same year8In May, this peace agreement was2The annualextensionwas also decided. Originally, the deadline for this peace agreement was2023counter for years (following a number in the hito-futa-mi counting system)2The agreement was set to expire in May, and there was a possibility that many important matters scheduled under the agreement, such as the presidential election, would expire without being realized, but both sides were able to reach an agreement to extend the deadline.

Thus, while the restoration of relations between the president and vice president appears to be progressing well as we enter 2022, there are still aspects of partial clashes between the two sides, and there also appear to be ongoing conflicts of a different quality than this at the regional level. In addition to conflicts such as these, civilians in South Sudan have been subjected to a wide range of regionalfloodand is also plagued by the accompanying food crisis problem. In the midst of all this, a presidential election is scheduled for 2024, and we wonder how the country's movements will develop in the lead-up to that election. This article will focus on these issues.

President Kiir and Vice President Machar holding hands on the occasion of an agreement on military unification, etc. (Photo:UNMISS / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

South Sudan's Progress to Date

Sudan" originally referred to the area upstream of the Nile River, south of Egypt.pointIt is a language. In ancient times, there were the kingdoms of Kush and Meroe, and in the 16th century, Islamic states such as the Kingdom of Hunji and the Kingdom of Darfur were established. in the 19th century, the country was invaded by Egypt, which took possession of it, followed by the British colonization of Egypt, which led to the British colonization of the country. The British, in doing so, placed the northern part of Sudan over the southern part of the country.favorable treatmentThis led to a feud between the north and south of Sudan.

In 1956, Sudan was granted a Britishindependence (e.g. of a company)The country's independence was achieved in 1960. However, even before independence, there was constant conflict between the northern and southern regions of the country, with major armed conflicts between the north and south occurring between 1955 and 1972, and between 1983 and 2005. And,2005between North and South Korea in 1949.Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)was concluded and this armed conflict came to an end. ThisCPAIn the future, in the6The year 2006 will see the establishment of an autonomous local government in southern Sudan instead of independence, and6Years later.2011It was decided to hold a referendum on the independence of the southern part of the country in 2012. As a result of this referendum, South Sudan achieved independence in 2011, with Kiir as president and Machar as vice president.

Although independence was achieved, problems remained between the two countries, such as the various legacies of the long war and the uneven distribution of oil resources to South Sudan. In addition, the Abyei region near the border between North and South Sudan (note 1Conflicts over the (continued...successionThe United Nations has not yet decided to which side the land belongs. The UN is 2011,United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS)andUnited Nations Interim Security Force in Abyei (UNISFA)was established. The former is charged with protecting civilians, investigating and reporting on the human rights situation, supporting humanitarian relief efforts, and assisting in the implementation of peace agreements, while the latter is tasked with border monitoring.

political conflict

South Sudan has experienced conflict with Sudan, and since independence there has also been political conflict within the country: in December 2013, President Kiir appointed Vice President MachardismissalThis led to the outbreak of a violent conflict between the Kiir and Machar camps over political power. The main purpose of this conflict was also over power.conflictThe ethnic-based conflict between the Dinka, Kiir's background, and the Nuer, Machar's background, was also a factor. Attacks also targeted civilians, resulting in sexual violence and destruction and looting of property. In response, the UN decided that same year to add about 6,000 more peacekeepers to the approximately 7,000 it had deployed since 2011 to protect civilians, and in August 2015, the two sides agreed to reappoint Machar as vice president, although for a time there were signs that relations had been restored, The following year, in July 2016, the conflict resurfaced, prompting Machar to flee the country.

Newly increased peacekeeping forces to respond to the outbreak of violent conflict (Photo:United Nations Photo / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

In June 2018, the two sides met again after two years to reach a peace agreement.signatureThe decision was made to reappoint Mr. Machar as Vice President and form a coalition government. In February 2020, this coalition government was officially formed. It was agreed that this government would be temporary until 2023, and that the interim government would implement important matters for peace, such as the establishment of a constitution and the unification of the armed forces. However, implementation has been slow, and conflicts still erupt from time to time. Military unification, as mentioned at the beginning of this report, has been in place since the signing of the peace agreement for about4Years elapsed2022counter for years (following a number in the hito-futa-mi counting system)4The project was finally implemented in June. Also,2023At the beginning of the year, the government was supposed to hold formal presidential elections and end the transitional government,2022counter for years (following a number in the hito-futa-mi counting system)8Its implementation in May.2024counter for years (following a number in the hito-futa-mi counting system)12To the moon.postponementIt was decided that the interim government would further2It remained in power for two years. Looking at the conflict situation, fighting was scattered in Upper Nile and Unity states in early 2022. According to the UN, between February and May of 2022, the conflict has resulted in173 peoplewere killed and about 44,000 people were forced to evacuate.

Thus, although there has been some progress in restoring relations between the two sides, it can be said that many challenges still remain, including repeated conflicts and delays in the implementation of the peace agreement.

Regional Conflicts

In addition to the political conflicts at the core of the state, as we have seen, there are also several conflicts at the regional level in South Sudan. This regional conflict is often described as if it were a conflict based solely on ethnic identity.able to captureIt is true that there are some examples of this. Certainly, there are some such examples, but unlike them, they are only fueled by ethnic conflicts by the elites, and in fact, power struggles among the elites are also behind the scenes.Hidden.There are often regional conflicts as well. The U.S.NGOorganizationACLED (*2)According to Dan Watson, a researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, such conflicts can be divided into three categories: elite rivalries, state- and regional-level conflicts, and ethnicized conflicts.3stages of conflict.continuumIt can be viewed as a In the following, we will look at specific examples of such regional conflicts.

In the province of Warrap, originally between the Lek Dinka and the Ruajang Dinka.confrontationThere were Both of these peoples were primarilystock-farmingThe people of the region live by the "cattle" system, but there were conflicts among them, such as looting of cattle, which are an important asset in their lives, and attacks on those who protect them. The elite were noticed by Lieutenant General Alık Khoa and President Kiir, and they became political rivals. Koa militarily supported the Lek Dinka, from whom he hails, while Kiir attacked the Lek Dinka in support of the Ruajan Dinka in what he called a "civilian disarmament movement." This fighting was2020counter for years (following a number in the hito-futa-mi counting system)8It peaked in June, when148 peoplewere to die.

Dinka people grazing cattle (photo:BVA / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

In the province of Jonglei,1991The Bolu Massacre of 1945 (*3))The Dinka, Nuer, and Murle people have been in conflict, starting with the2020In 2006, this conflict returned.intensificationThe Dinka and Nuer alliances and the Muerle people repeatedly attacked and retaliated against each other. This confrontation also involved an elite power struggle, the South Sudan People's Liberation Army (SS(PDF)said1The power struggle within the two organizations ishiddenThe company was in the process of developing a new business model. Specifically,SSPDFMilitary Intelligence supported a group of Murleans, vs.SSPDFordinal8The division supported Dinka and Nuer groups. Thus by the involvement of the elite,2020This battle in 2006 was at least1,058It was so large that people died.

The main sources of conflict among these elites arecauseThe "Mere Old Man" believes that corruption is widespread within the government, and that the concentration of wealth from the country's oil resources in the hands of those in power has led to the spread of conflicts over power and wealth not only at the national level, but also at the regional level.

Thus, in regional conflicts, ethnic conflicts are intertwined with elite power struggles, creating the appearance of proxy wars, and the use of forceupgradingand worsening of the damage caused by conflicts have often occurred.

Severe flooding

In addition to the conflicts we have seen so far, the people of South Sudan are also suffering from serious extreme weather conditions. Particularly serious is the situation in the northern region of South Sudan, wherefloodThe first is.2021year, due to extensive flood damage,1During the year alone, about50As many as 10,000 people were displaced to the Equatoria region, the southern region of the country.

South Sudan is located on the floodplain of the Nile River basin,8from month to month10Although seasonal flooding has often occurred in the past due to the high precipitation during the rainy season, which lasts until March,2019The extent of the flooding has become significantly more severe since about 2006.2021The flooded area in the country during the rainy season in 2006 was,about6,000square kilometerand2018Compared to that in 2006, about6It was twice as large.1from month to month3The dry season lasts until June, so that in most years the moisture in the ground dries out completely,2021The amount of flooding during the rainy season in 2006 was too high,2022The flooding was not completely resolved during the dry season of 2006.2022The rainy season of 2008 continued, causing damage in areas that normally do not experience flooding, such as Western Equatoria.10As of June, the number of victims in South Sudan was900,000 peopleThe number of floods has risen to as much as One of the causes of the intensification of flooding appears to be the abnormal development of riverine vegetation. The loss of people's activities along riversides due to long-standing conflicts seems to have caused abnormal development of the surrounding vegetation, which in turn stops the water flow in rivers and causes them to overflow.climate changeSome believe that this may also be the cause of the problem. In South Sudan, as in other parts of the world, average temperatures are rising rapidly, and precipitation is increasing rapidly accordingly.

People in Unity State affected by flooding (Photo:United Nations Photo / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Due to these severe floods, some people living in the northern part of the country have been forced to flee to the southern areas. However, even justpoorIn the southern region, where the "Mere Old Man" is a refugee, the refugees are not always welcome in a region where the "Mere Old Man" is a refugee. During this evacuation, they were attacked by bandits and their cattle were stolen.caseThe situation is not always so easy to live in a place that is finally reached after such a harsh journey. Even those who have finally arrived at their destinations after such a hard journey are not able to live in peace. In the Equatoria region, which is the main evacuation area, there is a situation where people who fled the floods from the north and newly arrived in the region, and people who had been living in the region for a long time, are now facing a situation where they are forced to live in fear of being displaced.collisionhave occurred in the region. In the region, such clashes in the past year have resulted inseveral dozen peopleThe situation has resulted in the deaths of They are competing with farmers who have lived in the southern region for some time over a few resources.

Thus, it can be said that South Sudan is experiencing unprecedented flood damage, and the situation surrounding the people who have been forced to evacuate due to the flooding is also severe.

food crisis problem

In addition to the damage caused by conflict and flooding as we have seen, the people of South Sudan are also facing a serious food crisis. Comprehensive Food Security Level Classification(IPC)According to,2022counter for years (following a number in the hito-futa-mi counting system)10from month to month11During the month of May,about660allare in a situation of acute food insecurity, which is about54This is equivalent to a % of the total. According to the UN report,2023Year.4from month to month7During the month of May, the number of these peopleabout780allIt is estimated to be up to In addition,about140allof children are already undernourished. Prolonged undernutrition in children can lead to the normal development of the brain, nerves, and body tissues.obstacleThe food shortages are said to have resulted in This situation of food shortages was most acute in the conflict2013years and ...2016It is said to be more serious than in 2006.

Acute Food Insecurity Classification of South Sudan by IPC (translated by GNV from the English original)

So why has the food crisis problem worsened so much today? There are many reasons. First, there is the flooding problem mentioned earlier. People affected by floods have lost their houses, fields, cattle, and pastures, and this has led to food shortages. Conflicts are also a major cause of the food crisis.causeThe situation is becoming increasingly severe. People whose property and crops have been destroyed by violent conflict or who have become displaced and lost income have difficulty accessing food. In addition, some areas of the country are suffering from drought, in contrast to flooding in most of the country.(suffering) damageThere are also outbreaks of In the border area with Kenya in Eastern Equatoria, drought has depleted water sources and devastated pastures, resulting in food shortages. This has also led to robberies and attacks in this border region.promotionIt is also said that they may be doing so.

Thus, food shortages have been exacerbated by extreme weather conditions and conflict, but adequate humanitarian assistance in response does not seem to be reaching the country. According to the Financial Tracking Service (FTS) provided by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the amount of funds delivered to South Sudan is less than what is needed,30% or moreIt is clear that there is a shortage. The United Nations World Food Programme (World Food ProgrammeThe United States has been providing food aid to South Sudan for some time,2022counter for years (following a number in the hito-futa-mi counting system)6month, citing inadequate funding, a portion of its food aidsuspension of music, dance, etc. as a sign of mourningto do so. One of the reasons for the lack of funding is the lack of global attention to the problems in South Sudan. Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)The top "countries whose crises are most ignored" are selected annually by the10Country,2021In 2006, South Sudan wasrankingThe company has also decided to In additionNational Research Councilalso emphasizes that, in contrast, financial aid to Ukraine reached the required amount in just one day. The recent spike in food prices has also contributed to the humanitarian aiddelayThe price of food is rising. If food prices skyrocket, even if the amount of financial assistance is constant, the amount of food that can be provided is reduced in real terms. This problem has been an ongoing one for some time, but the war in Ukraine has added to it.(riding) spurThe company decided to apply the

Future Prospects for South Sudan

A peace agreement was signed in 2018, and the conflict situation has since calmed down in South Sudan.2022In 2006, some of the promises made in that agreement, such as the unification of the armed forces, were realized. Although the country seems to be gradually advancing on the road to peace, a closer look reveals that there are many problems, such as delays in the implementation of the agreements' commitments, and conflicts at the national and regional levels are still occurring in various parts of the country. The environment surrounding the civilian population is also severe, with serious flooding and associated food crisis problems.

Furthermore, from an economic standpoint, the situation in South Sudan is not good. The oil industry is a large part of the country's economy.account forfactors, but the unstable conflict situation and political corruption have reduced capital investment in the industry from outside the country, as well as the global trend toward decarbonization, which has led to gains in the petroleum industry.decreasing trendIt is. It also thereby reduces the government revenuedecreasealso occurred, and there seems to be some concern about the stability of government activities.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article,2018The expiration of the peace agreement in 2006 was extended for two years. Despite the conflict, natural disasters, and economic crisis, this2The key will be how much progress can be made in the process under the agreement during the year.

note (supplementary information) symbol1　The referendum on which country the Abyei region belongs to has long beenpostponementThe reason for this is that there is a dispute between Sudan and South Sudan over the definition of "inhabitant. This is because of a dispute between Sudan and South Sudan over the definition of "inhabitants." Regarding the nomadic Misseriya people who seasonally travel between Sudan and the Abyei region, Sudan insists that they are included as residents of the Abyei region, while South Sudan insists that they are not.

2 What is ACLED?Location and Event Data Project on Armed Conflictis an abbreviation for "the

3 What is the Bolu Massacre?1991The massacre of civilians occurred in 2006. by a group of Nuer led by Mr. Machar shortly after he separated from the South Sudan People's Liberation Army.execution (e.g. program)and is about2,000Two Dinka people were killed.

Writer: Koki Ueda

Graphic: Mayuko Hanafusa