Located at the cultural crossroads of Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, Bulgaria has a turbulent history. It has been the center stage of a history in which numerous peoples have appeared, disappeared, and reappeared. The Roman, Byzantine, Byzantine, Belarusian, Ottoman, and more recently, the "Soviet" empires, as they have been figuratively called, conquered the region. But all of this seems like a long time ago now. The future looks bright, as this year marks the 10th anniversary of the European Union's accession, and we look forward to the rotating presidency in 2018.

Within Europe, Bulgaria is known for its Black Sea coastline beach resorts, medieval Byzantine monasteries, and quality ski resorts, with the capital Sofia ranking third this year as the fastest-growing European tourist destination. In Asia, Bulgaria is most often associated with yogurt and mellow roses. But not all is rosy.

Capital Sofia Photo: Boyan Georgiev Georgiev / Shutterstock.com

Future Population Projections

According to the latest population projection study by the United Nations, Bulgaria is the world's fastest-growing country, with a quarter of its population expected to be lost between 2015 and 2050, and the comparable bleak outlook for countries in Eastern Europe is clustered in the region. Taken as a whole, the world's population is expected to grow by one-third to reach 9.8 billion, with the fastest growing regions being Africa, where Niger is expected to more than triple its population.

UNDPCreated based on data from

Migration to foreign countries? Low birth rates?

The issue of population decline in Bulgaria (and other states in the region) may be discussed in the media in other countries, but only in the context of migration and brain drain.be reportedIndeed, migration is one of the main reasons why Bulgaria's population has declined from 9 million to 7 million since the end of Communist rule in 1989. But low fertility rates and an aging population have also played a role in the population decline.

After World War II, many Europeans emigrated to the "New World," but in the Soviet-controlled state, ordinary citizens had no freedom of movement, not even to other cities, much less to foreign countries. When Bulgarian millennials hear these stories from their parents and learn that they had to wait in line for hours to buy "foreign" imported goods such as bananas, they will feel as if they are in a completely different world from the one they live in today.

The end of Communist rule, which did not permit emigration abroad until 1989, meant that in Bulgaria the migration that had taken 45 years in other European countries occurred in less than a decade, a trend that was exacerbated by the economic crisis that resulted from the transition to democracy and a free-market economy. As such, one million people emigrated to Western Europe and the U.S., while another million naturally declined due to low fertility and mortality rates.birth rate(0.8%).

Photo: Ju1978 / Shutterstock.com

Why is the fertility rate so low in Bulgaria in the first place? With the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility began to decline in the 1990s, both fertility and total fertility rates have been declining worldwide since the end of World War II. Although the reasons for this phenomenon are not fully understood, it appears that regions with low fertility rates (Europe and Japan) share the same cultural and social values. That is, there, relatively low values are placed on religion, parent-child relationships, the state, and power. Such values are called "secular and rational" and are "especially common in nations with a long tradition of social democratic or social policy, and where a large proportion of the population studied philosophy and science at university." (For more information, see.World Values Survey(see also)

A comparison of the secular and rational Bulgarian and Japanese fertility rates, which have been ranked among the highest in the world by the same measure, reveals that since World War II, both have shown very similar trends, both at levels far below the world average.

(in Japanese history)World Bank(Created based on data from)

Comparison with Rapidly Aging Society

Given such a very low birth rate and the fact that many of the younger generation has emigrated out of the country, it is tempting to think that Bulgaria may have the fastest aging population in the world. While it is true that Bulgaria is one of the fastest aging countries in the world, no other country can compare to Japan, where 28% of the population is over 65 years old. However, this is largely due to the fact that life expectancy in Japan is much higher than the world average.

To look at this point more closely, let us briefly compare the societies with the most rapidly declining and slightly aging populations.

(in Japanese history)World Bank(Created based on data from)

As a matter of fact, as of 1960, life expectancy was higher in Bulgaria than in Japan. However, due to the destruction caused by the communist regime and the failure of the democratic transition policy, the standard of living dropped by half in the 1990s. The figure below shows that life expectancy in Bulgaria has not increased and is now 9 years lower than in Japan, and has not changed much since 1960. Taking life expectancy into account, one can easily imagine that the aging problem is equally serious in both countries.

(World Bankdata)

As this comparison shows, if life expectancy were to increase, Bulgaria would be the fastest aging society, even more so than Japan. Since life expectancy has its limits, this is indeed what is happening, as recent trends point to.

To make matters worse, unlike Japan, Bulgaria has a problem with its aging population. The inflation that raged in the 1990s wiped out savings, and retirees suffered greatly from the lack of new sources of income.

Photo by Dimitrina Lavchieva / Shutterstock.com

Comparison of Impact on Demographics

In looking at the grim situation in Bulgaria's demographics, it is interesting to compare it with the impact of two major demographic factors in history, conflict and epidemics, on the country's demographics.

This is because, over the past 27 years in Bulgariapopulation declinewill reach 22%, easily equaling the population decline caused by the most disastrous conflict in modern times. In Syria, where the conflict continues, the population is expected to decline by about 13% before it begins to grow again in 2019 as a result of the conflict, from 21 million in 2010, the most populous year, to 18.3 million next year. Compared to the situation in Bulgaria, this is one-third the period but one-half the decline.

Even in World War II, the largest conflict in human history, the largest percentage of the population lost, about 17%.PolandEven the population of Bulgaria is expected to decline by 25% over the next 33 years, a smaller decline than in Bulgaria to date.

In the 14th century, the historical eventWorldwide populationand a quarter of Europe's population, and a third of Europe's population has been reducedbubonic plagueseems to be the only comparable phenomenon in terms of influence.

Is emigration from abroad a beacon of hope?

Judging by the rate of population decline, one might think that Bulgaria, like many other peoples throughout history, would also disappear. But perhaps not. This is because the birth rate has been gradually increasing since the global financial crisis, thanks to improved economic conditions and population-related policies. In addition, the economic boom in Bulgaria has led to an increase in the number of migrants from regional countries and a decrease in the number of migrants to other countries. As a result, the net migration rate is heading toward zero and is also expected to turn positive in the next few years. In addition, the country's coastal and suburban mountainous areas have a mild climate and low cost of living, which is attracting many elderly European residents who want to move there after they retire.

(NSIdata)

Unfortunately, Bulgaria's per capita income is still only half the EU average. With more prosperous countries as an option for migrants to Europe, it is hard to expect a sharp increase in the number of people moving to Bulgaria. However, the situation is gradually improving. If the number of migrants increases and the integration of migrants is successful, the landscape, which represents a declining population, will diminish. Deserted towns and villages will present an unusual sense of isolation, schools and hospitals will close, workers will become older and scarcer, and train and bus services will become sparse due to a lack of passengers. It is hoped that such scenes will no longer be seen in Bulgaria and other societies with shrinking and aging populations.

Writer: Yani Karavasilev

Translation: Ryo Kobayashi

Graphic: Eiko Asano