In November 2017, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri suddenly announced his resignation while in the foreign land of Saudi Arabia. He cited Iranian involvement in Lebanon and an attempt on his life as reasons, but the development was so sudden and unnatural that different theories have gradually solidified from the foreign media. Originally, Prime Minister Hariri was supposed to go to a desert camp with Prince Muhammad of Saudi Arabia. However, asurveyAccording to the report, he had his cell phone suddenly confiscated, was separated from his bodyguards, and was forced by Saudi security to give his resignation speech, which was written in advance and forced to be delivered in front of Saudi TV cameras. Furthermore, the Lebanese prime minister was unable to return to Japan after announcing his resignation, and it is suspected that he was abducted by the Saudis.opinionwas intensified. Hariri himself and the Saudis denied this, but the suspicions have not abated. Why on earth did this happen? What are the links with neighboring countries? Let us take a closer look at Lebanon.

Prime Minister Saad Hariri (Photo: kremlin.ru [CC BY 4.0])

Lebanon's Political System

Lebanon, which is at the junction of three continents (Asia, Europe, and Africa), is a multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian country due to its geographic proximity to Christian, Muslim, and Jewish centers, and is home to 18 different sects, including Islam (Shia, Sunni, Druze) Christianity (Maronite, Greek Orthodox, Catholic, Armenian Orthodox) and as many as 18 other sects. As a measure to maintain stability in the midst of these various identities, the Constitution of the Republic stipulates that the number of members of the National Assembly corresponds to the number of each religious group, and the composition of the Assembly is based on sectarianism, an unusual structure. By convention, the president is always a Christian, the prime minister a Sunni, and the speaker of the parliament a Shiite,Seat of Congressis divided in advance with 64 Muslim seats and 64 Christian seats.

Lebanon and neighboring countries after independence

The situation in Lebanon cannot be understood solely in terms of domestic sectarian conflicts, but must be viewed as a whole region. Each domestic power has historical, religious, and political ties to neighboring countries, and these ties are a destabilizing factor. From this point on, we would like to look at how the relations among the countries surrounding Lebanon are like.

In 1943, Lebanon gained independence from the French Mandate, but its borders were drawn without regard to religion or ethnicity, and its complex ethnic composition meant that there was little sense of national belonging. The delicate political balance that had been managed was disrupted by a series of Middle East wars and the transfer of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which was expelled from Jordan in 1970, to Lebanon. As a result, the conflict between the Christian Maronite forces and the PLO worsened, and the Islamist forces, divided into Shia and Sunni factions, became militias and confronted each other. Also,South LebanonThe conflict intensified when Israel, which had been looking for an opportunity to intervene in the conflict since the 1970s, invaded with the purported goal of eliminating the PLO stationed in

When Israel invaded and occupied southern Lebanon in earnest in 1982, the PLO, Syria, Iran, and others opposed and supported the Shiite forces in Lebanon. In the process, a Shiite political and armed organization was created to resist the Israeli occupationHezbollahIn the case of Iran, Hezbollah is Hezbollah is closely related to Iran, especially in the large amount of arms and support it receives from Iran. In addition, Syria, which surrounds Lebanon, has been a party to the conflict since 1976, deploying its national army in order to establish its own security and influence. And yet another regional power is deeply involved in Lebanese affairs: the Sunnis, who have become concerned and at odds as regional rivals since the 1979 Iranian revolution.Saudi ArabiaIt is. Saudi Arabia is trying to influence Sunni forces and is highly critical of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, in order to maintain peace and stability in the region, a 15,000-member group near the Israeli-Lebanese borderUnited Nations Peacekeeping Force (UNIFIL)has been deployed and is still stationed there.

Le Monde newspaperandMap of the United NationsCreated based on

The Lebanon War ended in 1990, with Israel withdrawing in 2000 and Syria in 2005. However, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel continued, and in 2006 Israel invaded again, destroying most of southern Lebanon. Nonetheless, Hezbollah has greatly expanded its influence in Lebanon and is now a larger force than the Lebanese National Army. In addition, Hezbollah has made great strides in the areas of politics, education, and health care, and is active in these areas,A Nation Within a Nationand is even said to be more capable of governing than the Lebanese government in some places. Although there are currently no armed conflicts in Lebanon, many elements of instability remain, including the influence of neighboring countries.

Hezbollah military parade (Photo: khamenei.ir [CC BY 4.0])

Current Situation in Lebanon

As the Arab Spring that began in Tunisia in 2010 spread throughout North Africa and the Middle East, a new source of instability emerged in Lebanon. This is the Syrian conflict. Surrounded by Syria, Lebanon began to take in Syrian refugees, who numberedMore than one million people, which is a quarter of Lebanon's populationIt is also a very large number of people. Needless to say, a population change of this magnitude in such a short period of time has had a profound impact on Lebanon's society and economy. The economy is being squeezed by the need to provide livelihood support to refugees, as school classrooms are in short supply, the burden on public services such as health care has increased, and infrastructure development such as road repairs has stalled.

Syrian refugee children at school (Photo: DFID [ CC-BY-SA-2.0])

There is also a serious level of government corruption. Politicians bribe citizens in an attempt to buy votes with money, corruption in the infrastructure development process, and inefficient bureaucracy that reduces competitive markets are spreading every year. The electrical system is a case in point. Power outages occur daily in Lebanon, and many citizens purchase very expensive generators to light their homes. There is a great demand for infrastructure improvement, but the fact that the businessmen who deal with these generators are connected to partisan leadersnumerousTherefore, the problem is not improving. A vicious cycle continues in which public improvements are not progressing due to the emphasis on patronage, and citizens further distrust politics. In addition, due to conflicts, political turmoil, and fears of an Islamic State (IS) invasion from neighboring Syria, investment isSignificant declineThe company is doing so.

Thus, Lebanon is in a serious economic situation due to the large number of refugees accepted, political corruption, and declining investment. Under these circumstances, citizens are forced to live in hardship,Deportees to EuropeThere is no end to the number of

Lebanon (2006), devastated by Israeli airstrikes) (Photo: M Asser [CC BY-SA 2.0])

Lebanon's first elections in 9 years

The Syrian conflict and its refugee crisis have caused the parliamentary term to be extended twice, and general elections were held in May 2018 for the first time in nine years. Voter turnout wasApproximately 49%, compared to 54% in the previousThe number of seats was less than that of the previous year. Prime Minister Hariri's Sunni party, which lost credibility in the resignation drama, lost seats, making Hariri the loser in this election. The coalition of Hezbollah and its allies made a significant leap forward from the previous election, winning 67 of the 128 seats, more than a majority.won He is a Sunni prime minister. Even if Hariri stays on as Sunni prime minister, he will not be able to take a strong stance against Hezbollah. Hezbollah is currently involved in the Syrian conflict, having sided with the Assad regime and contributed significantly to the suppression of the rebels, and has been involved in other conflicts in Iraq andYemenIran is cooperating with Hezbollah. Iran is in a posture of cooperation with Hezbollah, and the Lebanese government must cooperate well with Hezbollah, which has a stronger military and political power than the Lebanese National Army.

Prime Minister Hariri, who suddenly announced his resignation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia this time, retracted his resignation upon his return to the country. However, it is believed that Saudi Arabia, wary of the presence of Shiite Iran, may have been outraged by Sunni Prime Minister Hariri's compromise with Hezbollah forces and forced him to resign. Currently, Iran is attempting to take advantage of Hezbollah's rapid rise in Lebanon to expand its influence into neighboring Iraq and Syria, as well as into Lebanon, while Saudi Arabia is using such strong-arm measures to thoroughly resist and strengthen its own influence. In the Middle East, the struggle for hegemony between the Sunni state of Saudi Arabia and the Shiite state of Iran is becoming increasingly intense. When will Lebanon free itself from the influence of its neighbors and become a stable, multi-ethnic state?

A port town in Lebanon (Photo: Paul Saad [ CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Writer: Mizuki Uchiyama

Graphic: Hinako Hosokawa