Colombia, a country where the 2016 peace agreement was paving the way for peace, held presidential elections in May 2018, the first time that ex-armed groups participated as a political party. However, after the peace agreement, both the former militants and the new president are dissatisfied with the content of the peace agreement in Colombia, and there is a possibility that the peace process may be reversed rather than progressed. New groups are still gaining strength in areas controlled by former militants. What will the future of the peace agreement look like in Colombia? Let us take a look at the situation in Colombia.

Ceremony of the peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC in 2016 (Photo: Gobierno de Chile / Flickr[.CC BY 2.0])

The Road to a Peace Agreement

In Colombia, from the late 19th to the 20th century, a few elites owned vast tracts of land, which were sold to individuals and foreign companies that created plantations to pay the national debt, creating great inequality between them and the peasants. At that time, in 1964, in an attempt to confront the inequality within Colombia, a group of farmers and land workersFARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) (*1) were created; the founders of the FARC created agricultural communities to save peasants from inequality, but the Cuban Revolution of the 1950s led them to demand more rights and land. However, these actions were seen as a threat to the large landowners and the state, and since then, a 52-year battle has been waged with the Colombian government. Due to this conflict,220,000 peoplewere sacrificed,7 million peopleSome of these people became refugees forced to migrate.

FARC soldier (Photo: Andrés Gómez Tarazona / Flickr[.CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

In 1964, another group that sought to confront Colombia's unequal distribution of land and resourcesELN (People's Liberation Army) (*2) was founded. It has attacked large landowners and multinational corporations, arguing that the country's oil and mineral resources should be shared by the Colombian people, not other countries.

In addition, the drug trade, which had become a major problem since the 1980s, was also a serious one: the illegal production of cocaine, where money could be made the most, flourished in the areas controlled by the FARC and ELN because government rule was out of reach. During the same period, working with the government, foreign companies, and large landowners to combat the FARC and ELNMilitia organizations such as the AUC (Colombian Vigilante Union) (*3)also grew in power and became heavily involved in the drug business. In addition, cocaine produced in Colombia wasNorthern Triangle of Central AmericaIt is smuggled into the U.S. through places such as A North-South American drug smuggling route has been formed, with cocaine flowing from Colombia. As a result, the northern part of Central America has become a zone of insecurity due to the activities of international crime syndicates. In addition, armed groups that have gained financial power through cocaine trafficking are active in the region.The AmericasThe negative impact on other areas of the

In 2012, former President Juan Manuel Santos declared his intention to pursue peace within Colombia, and peace negotiations began between the government and the FARC. These peace negotiations mainly discussed agrarian reforms that would give unused farmland to farmers and disarm the FARC. The United Nations was to monitor the implementation of the peace agreement and the disarmament of the FARC, and in September 2016, former President Santos and FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño signed the peace in Cartagena, northwest Colombia. However, there was opposition, including opposition to the agreement by former President Alvaro Uribe, and the peace agreement was ultimately referred to a referendum. The referendum, held in October of the same year, failed to win the support of the people, who had long been victims of FARC attacks, and there were also opinions that the content of the peace agreement was favorable to the FARC, resulting in a majority of the people opposing the peace agreement. However, in November of the same year, the Colombian Congress approved the revised peace agreement.

Based on map data from Al Jazeera

A few months after the peace agreement, FARC became a political party as an expression of the content of the peace agreement, which called for disarmed former FARC soldiers to participate in politics. The FARC is still used as the name of the political party, but it keeps the same abbreviation.FARC (New Revolutionary Force of Citizens) (*4), which has been changed to mean: a candidate in the March 2018 parliamentary elections and former FARC leader Rondoño running for president in May.

Colombia after the peace agreement

In 2017, one year after the peace agreement, more than 12,000 FARC fighters pledged to return to civil society, and approximately8,994 piecesThe United States gave guns and weapons to the United Nations. As a result, the conflict was most intense2002to 3,000 deaths, but the number has dropped to less than 100, and the number of refugees forced to emigrate has decreased by 79%.

The government is offering disarmed FARC members a monthly stipend to help them return to civilian life.$215.The company pays.

They also began to receive international support: in 2016, from the EU to help implement a peace agreement.Funding of approximately 96 million eurosand the EU has also approved an additional €15 million to strengthen and implement the peace agreement. The money is being provided with the expectation that it will be used to stimulate economic activity and rebuild areas affected by the conflict.

Former President Santos visits Europe in search of aid (Photo: Martin Schulz / Flickr [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0])

Remaining problems after the peace agreement

However, many of the terms of the peace agreement have not been implemented, and drug production and exportation and the use of force continue in Colombia.

As for the use of force,ELNThe ELN has been holding peace talks in Ecuador since February 2017, but in January 2018, ELN members carried out an attack that killed seven people and wounded more than 40, which the government condemned and suspended peace talks for six weeks The ELN is seeking social change to achieve national equality The ELN is seeking social change to achieve national equality and, unlike the Colombian government, is in no hurry to reach an agreement.

In addition, other armed groups and gangs have taken control in former areas of control where the FARC has disarmed. Of particular concern are the Mexican drug cartels, which are currently a major problem. For example, in southwestern ColombiaTumaco (lake monster said to be living in Kyushu's Lake Tumaco)continues to have the most violence in Colombia, and is an area where other groups that have entered to gain a source of income in areas where the FARC was profiting are fighting for control. In addition, Tumaco is the largest producer of coca, the raw material for cocaine; in 2016188,000 hectaresThe number of coca farmers has reached Coca cultivation by poor farmers is illegal because it is more profitable than other crops. According to the Colombian government, the country's annual income from cocaine isApprox. 13 billion U.S. dollarsThe company says that it is also a good idea.

The Mexican drug cartel that transports and traffics this cocaine from Colombia to the United States, where it becomes a major consumer, is growing in power in the territory where the FARC has left off. These Mexican drug cartels obtain cocaine through local gangs. Meanwhile, former President Santos promised troops and investment in former FARC-controlled areas to gain support for a peace agreement, and tried to stop growing coca and increase the country's income from other crops. However, the weakened economy made investment difficult, and there was much opposition to the cessation of coca cultivation, leading to riots. Even today, the Mexican drug cartels and70 armed forcesand gangs in the country.

Colombian troops burning a cocaine factory (Photo: Policía Nacional de los colombianos / Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0])

Attacks on local leaders and human rights activists have also taken place. between January 2016 and July 2017,186 or moresocial leaders and human rights defenders were murdered. These crimes were committed by a large number of armed groups, poorly controlled by the government.Former dominions of the FARCMany occur in With no government protection, leaders in these areas are in constant fear of death.

In the 2018 election campaign, FARC also participated as a political party, but suspended its campaign due to obstructions, including an attack on Londoño. Many voters have been attacked by the FARC over the years, making it difficult for the party to receive support. Government support has been inadequate, and a peace agreement that aims to allow former FARC members to participate in politics as members of society has not been implemented. The situation will not be safe for ex-militants to rejoin civil society.

The Future of Peace Agreements in the New Regime

In 2018, the first elections in which the FARC participated as a political party took place: the final results of the presidential elections held in June, in which Ivan Duque, who opposes the terms of the peace agreement54%.won over Gustavo Petro, who is in favor of the peace agreement, and will become the new president in August.

Duque elected as the new president (Photo: InterAmericanDialogue / Flickr [CC BY 2.0])

Duque challenged the election with the support of former President Uribe, who had opposed the peace agreement with his Democratic Centrist Party. He argues that the peace agreement is too lenient toward former FARC fighters and has called for renegotiation of the peace agreement to include punishment for the wartime crimes of former fighters.Its contentsThe following are some of the most important First, severe punishment for war criminals by restricting the freedom of former FARC combatants for up to eight years. In addition, former combatants who participated in war crimes would be tried by Colombia's Supreme Court, and the armed groups responsible for war crimes would be barred from holding public office until they pay their fines, among other things.

However, since the peace agreement took 19 months to reach, any changes could lead to a situation where the armed forces would again take up arms. 2018-2026, the peace agreement guarantees the FARC parties five seats each in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, regardless of the outcome of the elections. However, this could change if Duque's electoral claim that those involved in war crimes will be barred from holding public office until they are fined comes to fruition, and there is concern that leaders could leave disarmed areas with their fighters to form new armed groups.

It also stops all criminal activities and sets international monitoring and negotiation times.Certain conditionsDuque insists that there will be no peace talks between the ELN and the government except under the ELN, which wants to continue negotiations, but does not appear to accept these conditions. This is likely to prevent the conflict with the armed forces from ceasing in Colombia.

After 52 years of war between the armed forces and the government, the longest war on the continent, the FARC is disarming, becoming a political party, ending violence, and joining democracy. Can the government, on the other hand, continue on the road to peace? With the election of Duque as the new president, it is increasingly likely that the peace agreement with the FARC, which was forged by former President Santos, will not be implemented. Although the peace agreement ended the conflict in Colombia, various problems still remain because it has not been fully implemented due to the government's lack of governance and deteriorating financial situation, and with the replacement of a president who opposes the peace agreement, Colombia is reverting back to the situation before the peace agreement. The future of peace in Colombia may depend on the new president, Duque.

The Colombian town of Cartagena on the Caribbean Sea (Photo: R. Halfpaap / Flickr [CC BY-ND 2.0])

1：Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia
2：Ejército de Liberación Nacional
3：Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia
4：Fuerza Alternativa Revolucionaria del Común

Writer: Saki Takeuchi
Graphic: Yuna Takatsuki